Warriors Are Betting Favorites To Land Lauri Markkanen Over Heat, Magic

The Golden State Warriors are now officially the betting favorites to acquire Lauri Markkanen from the Utah Jazz in the 2025 offseason, according to the latest odds provided by Bovada.

Warriors Lead Heat, Magic As Betting Favorites To Acquire Markkanen

Golden State has (+205) odds to land Markkanen, followed by the Miami Heat (+250), Orlando Magic (+325), Dallas Mavericks (+450), San Antonio Spurs (+650), Oklahoma City Thunder (+700), and Brooklyn Nets (+800).

The Jazz reportedly plan to build around Markkanen and Walker Kessler this summer and next. This should mean that neither are available on the market, per The Athletic’s Trey Jones.

However, Utah would consider trading either one for the right price.

During the latest episode of the Bill Simmons Podcast, the NBA insider noted he and league executives around the league are expecting the Jazz to make Markkanen available for a trade.

“I’m on high alert with Utah,” Simmons said. “Austin [Ainge] took that job. He had a quote in a press conference… where he was just like, ‘Yeah, we’re not tanking anymore.’ It’s, like, alright! And, around the league, people seem to feel like Markkanen isn’t not available.”

According to Spotrac, Markkanen is under contract for the next four seasons with his $195.86 million deal. But after renegotiating and then extending his contract last August, the 7-footer is now trade eligible.

Warriors Can Trade Up To Four First-Round Picks

So what can the Warriors offer Utah for Lauri Markkanen? Despite giving Miami its 2025 first-rounder in the Jimmy Butler trade, Golden State still has plenty of draft capital for a trade.

The Warriors are allowed to include a maximum of four first-round picks — 2026, 2028, 2030 (if 1-20), and 2032 — in a trade. They will send the Washington Wizards their 2030 if it falls outside of the top 20.

Golden State is also allowed to swap firsts in the next seven seasons. The Warriors have one second-rounder available for a potential deal as well.

Even then, they would have to offer enough salary to make a substantial trade without including Draymond Green. That’s easier said than done, as the Warriors’ roster is top heavy in salary with Stephen Curry, Butler, and Green comprising 85% of their total payroll.

Jonathan Kuminga, a restricted free agent, also complicates Golden State’s offseason. His contract plays a role in how much cap flexibility the Warriors have in the months ahead.

If Kuminga wasn’t on the roster, Golden State would be approximately $17.5 million below the luxury tax. The Warriors are $25.5 million and $37 million below both aprons.

They are allowed to use their $14.1 million non-tax midlevel exception but would not be allowed to exceed the first apron once the roster is filled out.

Jazz Own 11 First-Round Picks

Meanwhile, Utah will have the non-tax midlevel ($14.1 million), biannual ($5.1 million), second-round, and veteran minimum exception available. The Jazz have a $3.5 million trade exception as well.

In addition, the Jazz have the fifth overall pick and own three more picks, including a first from Minnesota. All 15 players are also under contract for next season, but Utah has financial flexibility to be active in trades.

According to ESPN’s Bobby Marks, Utah has $60 million in expiring contracts and no player on the roster other than Markkanen who will earn more than $27 million.

The Jazz own 11 first-round picks, including a combined five unprotected first-rounders (two in 2027 and 2029) from Cleveland and Minnesota. The Wolves will send a top-five protected first in 2029.

Utah also has nine second-round picks available to use in a trade.