Pacers Had 0.3% Win Probability Against Knicks When Trailing By 14 Points

The Indiana Pacers trailed the New York Knicks by 14 points with 2:51 remaining in regulation before orchestrating a miraculous comeback to win 138-135 in overtime of Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals on Wednesday night.

Pacers Became The First Team Since 1998 To Win Playoff Game After Trailing By Nine Or More Points In Final Minute

Down 14 with under three minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, Indiana had only a .3% chance to win the game, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

That means the Knicks’ win probability was 99.7% while ahead by double digits.

Knicks had a 99% chance to win and they lost pic.twitter.com/NlCcnj320l

— DraftKings (@DraftKings) May 22, 2025

Entering Game 1, teams that trailed by nine or more points in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime in the playoffs were 0-1,414 since 1998, per Elias Sports Bureau. The all-time record is now 1-1,414.

With the Pacers down two and the clock winding down near the end of the fourth quarter, Tyrese Haliburton took the ball out near the top of the arc and toward the 3-point line and launched his shot.

Tyrese Haliburton Made A Legendary Choke Gesture

Haliburton’s clutch shot involved the ball bouncing high in the air after clanking off the back of the rim before going in to tie the score and send the game into overtime at Madison Square Garden. Replays would later confirm it was a 2-point shot.

However, when the ball finally fell in, Haliburton assumed he hit the game-winner and ran toward the sideline, making a comical choke signal to the New York crowd.

TYRESE HALIBURTON BUZZER BEATER FORCES OT 🤯🤯🤯

AND HE DID THE CHOKE SIGN TO THE KNICKS!!! pic.twitter.com/0jufr6naNl

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) May 22, 2025

The choke sign was a callback to Hall of Famer Reggie Miller’s famous gesture to Spike Lee while leading a Pacers comeback over the Knicks in a playoff game in 1994.

“I felt like it got stuck up there though. But it felt good when it left my hand,” said Haliburton, who finished with 31 points, four rebounds, and 11 assists in 42 minutes of action.

“I wasn’t like plotting on it or anything. Everybody wanted me to do it last year at some point, but it’s got to feel right. It felt right at the time — well, if I would’ve known it was a 2, I would not have done it. So I think I might’ve wasted it.”

Teams Leading By At Least 14 Points In The Final 2:45 Of The Fourth Quarter Had Been 994-0

Aaron Nesmith also ended his outing with 30 points, going 8-for-9 on 3-pointers, including six 3s in the fourth quarter to match an NBA record in a playoff quarter. Haliburton and Nesmith became just the third Pacers duo to score 30 each in a playoff game.

The Pacers have already made three comebacks this postseason when trailing by three possessions with less than a minute to go. Only one other team in NBA history had ever accomplished that feat before Indiana: the 2013-14 Oklahoma City Thunder.

According to Basketball Reference, teams leading by at least 14 points in the final 2:45 of the fourth quarter had been 994-0 since detailed play-by-play was first tracked in 1997-98.

The Knicks host the Pacers for Game 2 on Friday night.